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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been contained. A Washington representative spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is devoted on containing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".

After-Dark Attacks

As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: defensive missiles deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every firing jolts you unexpectedly, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from ruin and further power outages.

Persistent Threats

Following this, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a mobile-fire group – probably Western-made equipment. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.

Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in numerous residences as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to replace in the immediate future.

Ineffective Peace Efforts

The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.

Every new approach from Washington adheres to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.

The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.

Divergent Views

Therefore, Moscow is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.

On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not switch to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.

These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a mere seven days to terminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and show particular unwillingness to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and improve their protective measures at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.