🔗 Share this article

Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that split the country and triggered disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.

That represents the warning from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion

The team have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Volume's Strategy

In the book, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that seek neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses important lessons to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Request for Wider Debate

Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."